An influential military assessment has forecast that Russia could abandon a pivotal nuclear treaty that assisted in bringing the Cold War to an end.

The Military Balance 2008 has been released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It highlights new issues that could threaten security in Europe and, according to the institute’s head, John Chipman, the landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty may be the "next target of Moscow’s assertive revisionism".

2692 Missiles Destroyed after Nuclear Treaty’s Imposition

The treaty was put into motion 21 years ago, after receiving the signatures of the then-Russian and US Presidents – Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan respectively. The thrust of the agreement is effectively explained in its extended, formal, title – ‘The Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles’

The agreement’s signing preceded the destruction of 2692 such missiles.

Russia Suspended from Troops/ Weapons Treaty

In December 2007, Russia suspended itself from The Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty - a 16-year-old agreement that restricts the number of troops, as well as the amount of weaponry, allowed within Europe. While it has not yet fully withdrawn from the deal, it is anticipated that such a move will take place by the end of 2008.

Russia Could be Free to Design new Nuclear Missiles

Theoretically, with no allegiance to either the CFE or INF treaties, Russia would be free to construct a new line of nuclear missiles which, with a medium-range, would be capable of reaching parts of Europe. On the ground, meanwhile, Russian Army soldiers could be freely deployed close to any country within Europe that borders Russia.

"The end of the CFE treaty, the cornerstone of post-Cold War European security, could have negative consequences for Europe," Mr Chipman commented.

"It will abolish an important confidence-building mechanism — including the exchange of data and an inspection regime — and introduce new tensions between Russia and its neighbours, particularly if Russia decides to redeploy its troops closer to NATO member states."

Six years ago, the US pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. In comments twinning this factor with the possibility of Russia withdrawing from the nuclear treaty, Chipman added : "The unravelling of the infrastructure of European arms control can be seen as well in train

"For this not to matter, the burden will be all the higher on diplomats and politicians to avoid an escalation of tensions that would make military dispositions in Europe again a cause of strategic concern."

Russian Military Missile Tests Carried Out in Bay of Biscay

Earlier this month, Russia began a significant new exercise in the Bay of Biscay. Deploying a number of assets, including Blackjack and Bear strategic bombers, the exercise, according to a Russian military statement, was to include “...a number of missions and...tactical missile launches."

Source – Armed Forces International’s East European Correspondent

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